AI is set to lead attack and defence for cybercrime in 2025

New cybercrime crime gangs are looking to extort money from companies and individuals – Copyright AFP/File ATTA KENARE

Looking ahead to 2025 how will the future landscape of fraud and scams evolve? Many analysts think financial crimes will appear alongside the pivotal role AI is set to play in shaping both defences and threats in the coming year.

Scamnetic CEO Al Pascual has set out his thoughts on the 2025 horizon to Digital Journal.

Wealthy Americans Will Begin to Face the Threat of a Digital Arrest

Increasingly popular in Asia, criminals will find that the US is fertile ground for a relatively new and lucrative scam known as the ‘digital arrest.’ An evolution of extortion and ‘bail money’ scams, they threaten financially well-off individuals with arrest by a law enforcement agency, knowing that it will instil panic and fear. When faced with the prospect of jail time, many of their targets will be desperate for an alternative outcome, and these scammers are happy to oblige.

Bankers Will Cozy up to the EFTA to Avoid a Patchwork of Scam Liability Laws

The one thing bankers hate more than new federal laws and regulations are those passed by individual states. It is that sentiment that will motivate a shift in how liability is handled for scams as bankers go from detractors to supporters of a change in how authorized transactions – typical of scam payments – are reimbursed. The one-two financial punch of scam losses and compliance costs will shift the bank lobbying effort from that of resistance to vehement supporters of a superseding federal law. With one already on the books only in need of amending – the Electronic Funds Transfer Act (EFTA)– authorized transactions will be reclassified as reimbursable in the event of a scam involving financial institution payments.

Anti-Scam Data Sharing Efforts Will Force Scammers to Evolve

In countries around the world, legislators and regulators are pushing organizations with a newly vested interest in scam prevention to share data with their peers. It is this effort that will enable a new level of detection by banks, social media companies, and telecoms, but at the same time, it will mark the beginning of a new arms race between scammers and those tasked with stopping them. Scams will decline, and the bar will rise for aspiring scammers, but this will not be the end for scams. This is just the beginning of a new phase of the scam epidemic.

Malicious AI Will Help Some Victims Before Scamming Others

Victims worldwide have transnational criminal groups to thank for the proliferation of scams. These criminals – often based in places that turn a blind eye to these sorts of crimes for a price – cracked the code of operating an efficient business. Every business must contend with costs, so by soliciting and subsequently enslaving desperate people with offers of paid work, they have ensured that they have all of the ‘manpower’ needed while also maximizing their profits. Applying modern AI tools, such as generative AI and deepfakes, will be a natural evolution in their business operations. So, in an ironic twist, AI will not have enslaved humanity but rather freed it – only to be used to further one of the most human sins: greed.

Third-Party App Stores Will Give Rise to a Scam App Explosion

As some of the world’s largest and most influential companies, Apple and Google enjoy veritable monopolies on the digital app store ecosystem for their respective platforms. With US courts demonstrating that they feel the same way, these companies will be forced to allow greater competition. This will take the form of allowing third-party app stores unimpeded access to iOS and Android devices, as well as support the efforts of these stores to offer comparable libraries of applications. And much as these companies have warned, this will dramatically increase the number of apps that exist for the sole purpose of scamming victims, entirely controlled by criminals who exist to enable scams. With a newly enthusiastic audience of device users who are gaining access to, or simply exploring, a third-party app store for the first time, these apps will find a whole new world of victims who are no longer out of reach.