Prabowo set to lead bolder Indonesia on world stage

Prabowo has embarked on a diplomatic tour of Jakarta’s allies to strike deals and show face more than outgoing leader Jokowi – Copyright AFP Yasuyoshi CHIBA

Jack MOORE

Indonesian president-elect Prabowo Subianto has embarked on a whirlwind diplomatic tour ahead of his inauguration this month, showcasing his plans for a bolder foreign policy than under his predecessor.

President Joko Widodo prioritised Southeast Asia’s biggest economy over foreign policy over the past decade, not once attending the UN General Assembly in New York.

But Prabowo — who speaks German, French, Dutch and English — has visited more than a dozen countries since his election win on February 14, pledging stronger relations with all.

“Our defence outlook will be based on… a web of strong friendships. This web will be our strongest pillar of foreign policy and also our defence policy,” he said in a campaign speech last year.

Prabowo’s destinations in the eight-month transition period have painted a picture of his bid to deepen alliances while sticking to Indonesia’s traditional non-aligned path, despite Western moves to get Jakarta’s support on global issues from Gaza to Ukraine.

He made China his first stop after the presidential vote before trying to boost trade and defence ties on visits to Turkey and Russia, with whom a jet deal remains on the table despite Western sanctions.

Prabowo, who is defence minister in Widodo’s government, then signed a key security deal with Australia, and headed to France to discuss military cooperation.

Jokowi had some high-profile moments of global diplomacy, visiting Moscow and Kyiv on a short-lived peace mission in 2022 to mediate the Ukraine war and hosting the G20 summit in Bali where Xi Jinping and Joe Biden first met as counterparts.

But he mostly showed little interest in foreign policy, preferring instead to focus on domestic issues.

“Prabowo’s key foreign policy objective is to restore Indonesia’s role in the global arena,” said Yoes Kenawas, a research fellow from Atma Jaya University.

“This is significantly different than Jokowi… (who) didn’t really care about foreign policy.”

– US-China tightrope –

Prabowo’s flurry of visits also included Japan, Singapore, Serbia, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam, where he announced an upgrade in ties.

He held talks with Russia over a trade pact with the Eurasian bloc it leads, seen as a counter to the European Union which he said on the campaign trail Jakarta “doesn’t really need” anymore.

Friction has grown between Jakarta and Brussels over plans for a deforestation-related ban on products such as palm oil, of which Indonesia is a top exporter. 

He also embarked on a Middle East tour to lobby Gulf powers for stronger economic ties.

“His trips show he is positioning himself as a leader ready to shape Indonesia’s role on the global stage,” said Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at advisory firm Global Counsel.

By being more visible, Prabowo feels Indonesia can “attract more foreign investments and cooperation”, Yoes said.

The most sensitive relations will be the diplomatic tightrope Jakarta has to walk between regional competitors Beijing and Washington.

Prabowo met with Xi in April and later with US State Secretary Antony Blinken in Jordan but has not been invited to Washington.

The shift under the fiery nationalist suggests growing concern over Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea, where its boats have clashed with the Indonesian navy.

The agreement Indonesia signed with Australia last month saw the neighbours pledge closer cooperation to counter security threats.

Dedi said this pointed to Prabowo preparing Indonesia to be more assertive in its defence of contested areas of the South China Sea while counterbalancing Beijing’s expanding economic influence.

“It looks like he is more than willing to take bold steps to safeguard Indonesia’s interests,” Dedi said.

– ‘Strike a balance’ –

But observers say he cannot deviate too much from the path set by Jokowi during the early stages of his presidency.

Jokowi is still wildly popular at home and his support is crucial for Prabowo before and after his inauguration.

“I believe everything he did in the past couple of weeks was in consultation with Jokowi,” Yoes said.

Prabowo’s media team did not respond to a request for comment.