Parcel lost, package found: States most likely to see postal delays

Former US postal worker
Gerald Groff had resigned from his job after not meeting requirements to work some Sundays – Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File KEVORK DJANSEZIAN

A new review has been conducted to rank the states where parcels are most likely to be delayed based on several factors, including  the volume of online searches related to delayed or lost packages, the performance of the United States Postal Service (USPS) in each state, and the freight flow per capita.

This assessment reveals that North Dakota tops the list for parcel delays due to its high freight flow per capita and significant search volumes for delivery issues while having one of the smallest populations. Georgia ranks second and has the highest search rate.

The review was performed bv the firm Overnight Glasses. For this, several key factors that contribute to delivery delays were analyzed,including the volume of online searches related to delayed or lost packages, the performance of the United States Postal Service (USPS) in each state, and the freight flow per capita, which reflects the logistical burden on the state’s delivery infrastructure. 

The data summary indicates: 

North Dakota is at the top of the list with an index of 61.9. The state experiences a freight flow of over $277 million for its 783,000 population, resulting in significant logistical challenges. The state has a USPS performance rate of 70 percent, and residents frequently search for terms like “package delayed” and “order not delivered.” The high number of searches, high freight activity and moderate USPS performance make North Dakota the most challenging state for timely parcel delivery.

Georgia follows closely in the second position with an index of 50.2. With a population of over 11 million, the state has the highest searches per 1000 in the list. The USPS performance in Georgia is 63.7 percent, one of the lower rates, and the state’s freight flow is valued at approximately $841.7 million. These factors collectively contribute to Georgia being the second most likely state where parcels might be delayed.

In third place is Illinois, with an index of 41.9. Illinois has a population of 12.5 million and a freight flow value of $1.45 billion. The search ratio per 1000 is at 86.8 in the state and with a USPS performance rate of 65 percent, Illinois ranks in the top 3. The combination of significant search activity and a large volume of packages moving through the state lead to delivery delays.

New York ranks fourth, with an index of 40.8. New York’s massive population of nearly 19.6 million generates a high volume of searches, reflected in a search value of 92.6 per 1000 people. The USPS performance rate is only 65 percent, leading to frequent concerns about delayed parcels. The state’s freight flow is valued at $1.09 billion, further complicating timely deliveries.

Texas takes the fifth spot with an index of 40.7. Texas has the highest freight flow in the nation, totalling $3.64 billion, which significantly impacts its ranking. The state’s immense size and population of over 30.5 million create logistical challenges. The USPS performance rate in Texas at an average 65 percent, and issues with timely deliveries, as reflected in the search value of 85.0 gives the state a high position in the ranking.

It is interesting that astate like North Dakota, with a relatively small population, ends up at the top of the list for parcel delays. It shows that it’s not just about how many packages are being shipped but also about how well the infrastructure can handle that load, especially in areas that might not be as densely populated.

The methodology involved normalizing the search volume data to account for population differences, ensuring that larger states did not automatically rank higher. USPS service performance was also inverted, meaning lower performance rates increased the likelihood of a state ranking higher in the study. Additionally, the freight flow was adjusted for population size, providing a more accurate reflection of the delivery challenges in each state. By combining these factors into a total index, the final ranking was created: the higher the index, the greater the probability of a delay.