Coming winter ‘sternest test yet’ for Ukraine energy grid

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol issued a stark warning over Ukraine’s winter energy needs – Copyright AFP Anthony WALLACE

Isabel MALSANG with Umberto BACCHI in Brussels

The coming winter will prove the “sternest test yet” for Ukraine’s energy grid, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, as the EU announced additional aid to help the country weather Russia’s attacks on its power infrastructure.

Echoing the stark warning over Ukraine’s coming needs, EU chief Ursula von der Leyen announced she would travel to Kyiv for Friday talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky, as the IEA put forward a 10-point plan to safeguard the war-battered country’s energy security.

“We must do all we can to keep the lights on. And as winter is approaching, we must keep the brave people of Ukraine warm, while we also keep the economy running,” the European Commission president told a Brussels press conference held jointly with IEA chief Fatih Birol.

The IEA report said that in 2022 and 2023 “about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity was either occupied by Russian forces, destroyed or damaged, and approximately half of the large network substations were damaged by missiles and drones.”

“Ukraine’s energy system has made it through the past two winters… But this winter will be, by far, its sternest test yet,” the agency’s executive director Birol said in a news release accompanying the report.

With Ukraine having lost more than two-thirds of its electricity production capacity since the Russian invasion, the report warned of a “yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand”.

It urged European countries to expedite deliveries of equipment and parts to rebuild the damaged facilities and called for measures to protect them from drones.

Von der Leyen said the EU would make an additional 160 million euros ($178 million) available to help Ukraine through the winter. 

These will include 60 million euros in humanitarian aid and 100 million euros for repairs and renewable energy, she said, adding the latter amount would come from the proceeds of immobilised Russian assets in the European Union.

“I will be travelling to Kyiv to discuss these matters in person with President Zelensky tomorrow,” von der Leyen said.

– Winter heating strain –

In the summer, when energy needs tend to be lower, Ukraine’s capacity for power generation already fell more than two gigawatts below the peak demand of 12 gigawatts.

As demand for energy to heat homes increases in winter, the IEA predicts that the country’s peak demand could increase to nearly 19 gigawatts.

“Strains that are bearable in the summer months may become unbearable when temperatures start to fall and supplies of heat and water falter,” the report said.

The IEA said that power plants damaged by Russian attacks or occupied by Russian troops, such as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, urgently needed replacing or repairing, while the physical and IT security of critical infrastructure needed strengthening.

It also recommended increasing electricity and gas import capacity from the European Union, accelerating the decentralisation of electricity production and greater investment in energy efficiency.

It estimated the cost of necessary repairs and upgrades at $30 billion.

– Moldova energy security concerns –

Outside Ukraine, the IEA report warned that neighbouring Moldova’s energy security could also be hit.

Most of Moldova’s electricity comes from one gas power plant in the breakaway Transnistria region, which is backed by Russia.

Producing around two-thirds of the country’s electricity, the Moldavskaya GRES power plant is largely fuelled by Russian gas imported via Ukraine.

But last month, Ukraine announced its intention to discontinue at the end of this year an agreement signed in 2019 allowing Russia to pump gas via its territory.

With the taps turned off, both the plant’s gas supplies and Moldova’s electricity security would be subject to “significant uncertainty”, the IEA said.

As a result, the agency urged the country to secure its supplies by strengthening energy ties with its European neighbours, “with benefits for the wider region”.

Set up under the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis, the IEA styles itself as “the world’s leading energy authority”.

Though not a full member, Ukraine joined the agency as an associated country in July 2022.