Op-Ed: Ukraine’s excellent Kursk move has Russia baffled, with good reason

Moscow’s defence ministry said Ukraine launched the attack with up to 300 troops, 11 tanks and more than 20 armoured combat vehicles – Copyright Governor of Kursk Region/AFP –

Russia has responded with a barrage of press statements, and not much else worth mentioning, to the Ukrainian move into Kursk. The Russians were caught completely off guard, and it shows.

That’s not the problem. It’s just one of many big problems. This was a truly great move by Ukraine, effectively opening the floodgates.

Russia has now been put on notice that its entire front with Ukraine can be pierced at any point, at any time. That’s a huge area. The abysmal talentless meatgrinder and trench warfare tactics they’ve been using elsewhere will have no impact on this type of attack.

Then there’s the question of objectives, tactical and strategic. Nobody, including the hopelessly pretentious military experts online, has a clue what Ukraine’s strategic objectives are.

Just as well. These military cliché-ridden motormouths need to know when silence is the only option. Shut up and learn, hacks.

All this has been achieved with a single attack and a later subsidiary attack in the same general area. What would hundreds of attacks do? Can Russia respond with more pathetic conscript band-aids to every penetration? They don’t have much choice.

The Russian troops facing the initial attack didn’t get any support. According to an interview with an obviously underfed and tired-looking Russian NCO, they didn’t have any option but to surrender. His local garrison unit was engulfed with nowhere to go.

In chess, this is called a “forced move’. It’s a move in response to the opponent’s move, with the opponent calling the shots. Another term is a “disclosed check”, having to move to defend a critical piece or point. A disclosed check may often also threaten other elements of the defense as well.

The GAZPROM supply of gas to Europe just happens to be in the same area in a town called Sudzha. GAZPROM says the supplies are still flowing, but you get the point.

The Kursk region is a critical point. It’s a major hub for logistics and the largest city in the region. The Ukrainians went straight up the main road without much real opposition.

Russia’s huge east-west infrastructure is so big it’s practically indefensible in this context. It’s not a great look. The big punch-drunk bear is turning itself into a rug and can’t even defend its own territory.  

Sometime in the future, this will be described as a textbook attack with the current generation of modern forces. It might or might not be described as an impossible situation for the Russians, but that’s exactly what it is.

The Ukrainians are also using “economy of force”. They’re not risking huge amounts of resources to achieve this utter chaos. They’re not overextended and well within reach of friendly territory and effective support.

The Russians, in contrast, are having to drop everything and scramble to fill the ever-increasing number of holes in their defenses. The Ukrainians have freedom of maneuver and plenty of time to strike anywhere they like.

The long-term outlook for Russia is nowhere near as rosy. The Russian military has been utterly humiliated at an enormous cost in lives. Any other professional military command would resign in protest or sheer fury. All that’s happening is that their troops are dying for absolutely nothing.

The overall situation is horrendous, You have to wonder whether Russia even seriously believes it could fight NATO, or even just Poland on its own, in the state it’s in. Troops are being pulled from Kamchatka, complete with S300s and all their gear, to fill the holes created by the war in Ukraine.  

Strategically, the old communist “fight for years until the other guy gives up” strategy can’t work. It didn’t work in Afghanistan, either. You can only lose a war in so many ways before it’s over.

If Russia would like to join the 21^st century, it’s perfectly welcome. Let’s leave the 20^th century and its miseries where they belong. It’s time to move on from this insanity.

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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.