Op-Ed: Adiivka – Russia ‘takes’ a virtual suburb of Donetsk, so what?

The frontline town of Avdiivka has become the new symbol of the Russian war in Ukraine – Copyright AFP MOHAMMED ABED

The Ukrainian withdrawal from Adiivka is being touted as a Russian victory in the total absence of Russian victories. The town is practically next door to Donetsk, part of one of the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine’s east.

In military terms, the total vacuum of Russian tactics was on full display in the fighting for Adiivka. This was a Bakhmut-like long slog, costing large casualties with no ideas. The sheer extravagance of Russian losses is a story in itself,

If it took all that effort to take a town right next to Donetsk, Russia’s not able to deliver much on the ground but press releases and its own obscene casualties.  Small-time local operations elsewhere aren’t doing too well, either.

The Ukrainian perspective is more complex. The Russians had to cripple themselves to capture a bit of “their” territory. Strategically, front lines always move around. Moves like this here or there don’t necessarily affect the big picture, and certainly not on the larger scale.

That said – Adiivka was a forward position. It was a hot spot by definition. Given the unbelievable stupidity and intransigence of Ukrainian support from the West, hanging around taking casualties for no good reason wasn’t an option.

A withdrawal could have been easily justified in far less demanding circumstances. The Ukrainians decided to fight on for longer than most armies would and made their point the hard way.

The fight for Adiivka made a few other military points. The Russians are obsessed with “encirclement”, the most resource-consuming possible tactic. It takes far more troops to encircle a position. Troops the Russians don’t really have these days.

The hard fighting also didn’t exactly shower laurel wreaths on the Russians as combat forces. They’re fighting an outnumbered and theoretically outgunned enemy, and all they know how to do is to take hideous casualties? They simply keep dying and hope the Ukrainians will pull out?

What’s clear is that the Russian army is punch drunk. It always looks like it’s out on its feet. The big defensive trench systems are far bigger than they have troops to man them. They didn’t do at all well against HIMARS and the M777s. The material damage, already bad, is now a permanent handicap.

Management styles for commands are also indicative. The Ukrainian “offensive” last year was realistic. They didn’t over-commit. Their losses were minimal, particularly compared to Russian losses over the same time frame.

The Russians, meanwhile, are micromanaging everything. That’s a recipe for failure, and that’s what it’s been doing for nearly two years. The over-hyped drone onslaught hasn’t worked either. The winter war on infrastructure has failed utterly.  

A word of advice for Western pundits. Don’t tell the Ukrainians how to fight. You’ve been wrong from day one anyway and you’re wrong now. The longer-term looks good for them. The agreements with France and Germany are the right moves.

If you want to make yourselves useful for a nice change, start advocating for support from the West, not sage advice from 80 years ago.