Op-Ed: Australian heatwave nears 50C with cyclones and more

Australian bushfires in 2019 and 2020 were so bad they affected the hole in the ozone layer, researchers say – Copyright AFP PETER PARKS

Australia’s summers are usually pretty warm. 35C is normal and unremarkable, with a few days above. We’re now seeing something a bit different. The predicted 50C in the current forecasts is a real benchmark, and atypical. 50C happens occasionally in the deserts. It’s not a regional forecast thing.

This isn’t just about the weather. We don’t often have extreme heat warnings, but they’re happening now. It’s an emerging climate reality and it really is very different. These hot summers have been “evolving” over the last decade. In the 2018-19 fires we had a desert catch fire while about a quarter of the country burned down. The summers have been hotter according to anyone over about 60.

El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole are the main drivers of the really hot weather. El Nino comes and goes, although this one seems pretty active globally.  La Nina means a fairly mild summer. At this time of year, we typically get the wet season and the odd cyclone up north and pretty much cliché tourist Australian weather in the 30s.

Hot summers and heatwaves are also economically extremely expensive. Agriculture suffers from severe climate stress. So does everything else. Train tracks warp. The bushfires explode. Floods and summer storms create havoc. Summer blackouts are becoming a problem.

Add 50C to that combination, and you see why this is making headlines. We’re used to the summer temperature bandwidth. We’re not used to the “added extras”.  

Extreme heat can also cause complex weather patterns. Heat transfer alone can cause unstable conditions. Water and heat dynamics can put a lot of moisture into the ear. Cyclones, which damage Queensland on an annual basis, are generated in the right temperature conditions. Just add heat, and it all happens.

It’s inevitable to mention “climate change” in any discussion of the weather. Let’s put it this way – As an academic issue, you can argue the point in theory. When it’s 50C, giant bushfires and cyclones staring you in the face, you can’t argue at all.